Experts Say China’s Wind Energy Could Grow 1667% by 2020
At present, China produces just over 6 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy, making it 5th in the world for total wind energy. (Germany leads with 22.2 GW.) However, with China’s massive push for 21st Century renewable technologies, we shouldn’t be surprised if China achieves 100 GW by 2020 say energy experts.
China is already outpacing its own wind energy goals.
Officially, China’s latest renewable energy plan sets a goal of 10 GW by 2010. That’s double the previous target. However, according to industry analysts at China Strategies LLC, China’s current pace of wind development will bring 10 GW by the end of this year, two years ahead of schedule. According to China Strategies, 20 GW is possible in China by 2010. What’s more, they foresee a total of 100 GW by 2020, an increase in wind energy of 1667%. And, they add, this may be a conservative estimate.
These figures should make critics of China’s energy policies think twice. On the one hand, China still relies heavily on polluting coal to power its factories and make the inexpensive goods that many people have come to expect. On the other hand, China is making significant strides to adopt renewable energy technologies.
The China Economic Review quotes Richard Spencer of the World Bank, who worked on one $13 million wind project as saying, “China is working very hard to reduce its dependence on coal, and it looks to nuclear, hydro and wind, particularly, to replace coal. Wind is very important.”
How will China make the switch to clean energy? One answer was the 2005 Renewable Energy Law, which required utilities to buy renewable energy. Such legislation is an important part of the answer. Similar legislation in California has encouraged major investment in wind and solar. But an underlying question remains: can China continue its recent rate of growth in the renewable energy field?
If so, the Middle Kingdom is poised to increase its percentage of wind energy from less than one percent to about 20% by 2020 says Steve Sawyer, secretary general of the Global Wind Energy Council, in the China Economic Review. For those keeping track of the economic competition between the US and China, that would set China dramatically ahead of the US goal of 5-6% by 2020.
Further reading:
China’s Wind Power Industry: Blowing Past Expectations
Chinese Cleaning up with Wind Power
China Poised to Become Clean-Energy Leader?
U.N. report: Clean energy booming globally
Photo Credit
George Lu via Flickr
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China runs full speed ahead into the 21st Century while the U.S. is mired in old money, older philosophy and old oil barons in congress! The torch of leadership in the world was passed on and China is taking the lead! If the U.S. had chosen to be a moral people, and leaving Iraqi oil alone, and following Al Gore, decided to develop the South Western deserts, with the technology of the times - solar/thermal-molten sodium - electricity installations, for the same amount of money as that war cost, ($650 Billion), today, we would be tapping into the largest, renewable, sustainable, energy source the world has ever known. It would have paid every energy bill in the U.S.A. for maintenance fees only - FOREVER! It would be equivalent to an oil field that can NEVER run dry! Low cost electric power, and storeable hydrogen gasoline replacement from the electricity, for all!
After the millions of murders, and $650 billions of dollars, borrowed from our children’s futures and pissed away, with thousands of our own and others maimed and disfigured for life, millions of families utterly destroyed, ours and theirs, we are no closer to Iraqi oil production than the Iraqis are!
The next time you hear a blithering idiot spoiled brat, drunken, drug addicted, sociopath, rich Arabic saber dancing daddie’s boy oilman, stand at a microphone and threaten YOUR safety with someone ELSE’S weapons, remember what you lost America, remember, and weep! (also see http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan)
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Hey, Guys: Very serious blog going on here. Here is my 2 cents: look beyond (behind)the numbers. 6GW is the total cumulative installed capacity in China. It does not equate to China producing 6GW wind electricity.
1. According to the UK Wind Energy Association, a typical installed wind turbine produces an average not more than 30% rated capacity or design capacity. This 30% is called “load factor” or “capacity factor” in the US. I have not come across any research on China’s wind load factor. Some say it is below 20%.
2. Other factors that affect a wind energy output include: quality of the turbine like blades, gearbox, quality of the wind resource like wind speed variation, how high and how low, availability of grid connectivity, real experts that truly understand this green energy and the related technology. When it comes to new business development in China, you often see “blind leading the blind” situations.
3. If you are seriously thinking about investing in China’s renewable energy area, pay attention to the operators, participate in the conference calls and ask questions. If they are real experts in what they are doing, you will have a better chance of winning.
4. Good old American is still the best. Our B-schools started to make business ethics a required MBA course long before any other country, certainly decades before China. I am not sure if it is required in China. I am not saying one course will prevent Arthur Andersen type but it certainly builds an important awareness.
5. Between 2008 and 2020 or in 13 years, China will add additional new capacity of 100-6=94GW, that is over 7GW newly installed capacity each year for 13 years, 94GW requires roughly 10 million tons of forged components. This is a lot of forging capacity requirement.
6. As there are good players, there are bad ones. Paying attention will help you weed out the bad ones.