Putin Praying $80 Billion India-US Nuclear Power Deal Fails
Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, is one man you can bet is clutching the prayer beads seeking some solace and hope that a potential nuclear power deal with one of the world’s emerging economies would land his country’s way.
That is, if the US Congress helps him by trashing George Bush’s deal with India before he can sign it into law. And the urgency means it is a critical time for both Washington and New Delhi. This might be easy if there’s no deal before the November presidential elections.
Here are the stakes: India seeks out partners to co-develop its nuclear energy potential, worth about US$ 80 billion. By 2032 the government plans to quadruple total generating capacity, to 700 gigawatts, with nuclear accounting for 63,000 megawatts.
Today, India gets just 3% or about 4,120 megawatts of its energy from nuclear power but wants to put up another 40 nuclear plants to boost demand.
As the US congress mulls over the whole picture, Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, indicates he is ready to deal with the willing - there’s no going back.
So he wouldn’t mind dealing with Vladimir Putin, the real power at the Kremlin, together with president, Dmitri Medvedev. France’s Nicolas Sarkozy is also waiting on the wings.
India wants to tap into nuclear power and wants badly because it is energy starved and its industries must get a more reliable power source. Besides, nuclear power emits no carbon dioxide, the leading cause of global warming.This will fit in well with its status as one of the world’s fastest growing economies, together with China.
Whether the US Congress will overturn three decades of US policy by allowing nuclear trade with India before Bush goes back to Texas for good remains to be seen.
But there’s a catch, and a rash decision will be as dangerous as it is alluring - India has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) against the spread of nuclear weapons. How then will this relate to Washington’s stance on, say, Iran’s development of nuclear energy?
Bush and Singh had agreed on the deal way back in March 2006 during a visit to New Delhi by the US president and only the ratification process that must go through Congress was remaining before it could be signed into law.
Bush said then: “It’s a necessary agreement. It’s one that will help both our peoples. Congress has got to understand that it’s in our economic interests that India have a civilian nuclear power industry to help take the pressure off the global demand for energy.”
Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, says finding a solution to India’s mounting energy needs is more important than ever.
He says: “As one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, India has an escalating power demand that is straining international energy supplies. Unchanged, this demand will be met with a greater reliance on fossil fuels, squeezing global oil prices while exacerbating greenhouse-gas emissions”.
A senior official of India’s Department of Atomic Energy was this week quoted as saying: “If a deal with Congress doesn’t happen, we will have business with other countries. So simple.”
But the US will get more than helping India achieve its energy requirements. American companies are seeking to benefit from an India-US neclear power deal. America wants all if not a large chunk of the $80 billion at stake.
How are they going to get their hands on this? By becoming preferential nuclear technology suppliers to India under international guidelines against non-proliferation after realization that a 34 year ban on nuclear technology trade with India wasn’t at all helpful to their coffers.
Mark you, these are the very guidelines Washington will be trashing if the deal with India goes through. NPT can take a back seat, we don’t need it when there’s a lot at stake, remember?
And here is where the US Congress comes in. The men and women in Washington, DC who purport to seek a lesser dependence on fossil fuels on American soil must also extend their reach abroad before the likes of Putin seize the moment.
Putin, meanwhile, breaks no sweat as he keeps on rolling the prayer beads through his fingers. He knows, for sure, that some of that potential must not slip through his fingers, and there are other many ways of getting it, you can bet again.
Image credit: mandj98 via Flickr, under a Creative Commons license.
This France will get a major chunk of this business.
India may buy a couple of reactors from USA just out of gratitude. But unless USA changes its law that will ban any fuel going to India in case of India’s nuclear test, they are going to be bit player in this market.
And Indo-Russia relations are not as thick as thieves any more…