Major Studies Reveal State of the Poles

This month, as the results of data analyses come in, climate scientists are getting a more detailed, far clearer picture of the ‘State of the Poles’ and the effects of warming and climate change in these most extreme regions of our planet. Although this project is actually the culmination of two years work (encompassing 160 separate studies and costing 1.2 billion dollars) it has been officially deemed the ‘International Polar Year’ (IPY).

One of the most important findings of this project is a confirmation of what many climate scientists have suspected for a couple of years now–that the impact of climate change on our environment is happening at a much faster rate than previous computer models predicted. This is true even for the four major reports released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the last of which was released in 2007).

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Other important findings: the ice masses that cover Antarctica and Greenland are indeed diminishing and contributing to a rise in sea levels. As the reader may know, this question of total (net) loss of ice mass–especially with regards to Greenland–has been a point of contention both within the science community, and also with opponents of anthropogenic climate change. There was some earlier data suggesting that, while the rate of melting at the outer “fingers” of Greenland’s glaciers and their movement towards the sea was increasing, the central ice mass was also increasing (due to a short term increase in snow accumulation, etc.).  But based on the results of these more comprehensive and more accurate studies the contention–or confusion–is apparently over and resolved, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Council for Science, sponsors of IPY. Officials at these two organizations believe that they now have accumulated enough concrete scientific evidence on which to base their climate policy recommendations.

Another troubling confirmation: Arctic permafrost is thawing, most likely due to a rise (over the past 35 years) in the average Arctic temperature of 1° to 2 ° Celsius (one degree of Celsius or centigrade is equal to 1.8 degrees of Fahrenheit). This is a sufficient rise to allow thawing of permafrost.  The concern here is that the millions of tons of organic matter that currently is contained by the permafrost “seal”, will begin decomposing–releasing large quantities of both CO2 and methane gas, two major green house gases (note: methane gas, CH4, also destroys ozone, O3).  This, it is predicted, will further tip the balance towards a “runaway greenhouse effect”.

But predicting the exact nature and timing of climate change in different locales is difficult due to unique geographic conditions (which can either augment or mitigate warming effects) and the interplay of positive and negative feedback loops constituting the global climate system. Still, these new studies will provide better data for far more accurate climate models–computer simulations that are actually highly accurate in the short term.

So, it seems that over the next few years we will likely see the clear impact of global warming and climate change on our local and global environments (as opposed to just seeing it on television documentaries).

The poles, being covered largely by (white) ice, reflect a great deal of sunlight back into space. Little heat is absorbed under typical conditions, and these regions remain extremely cold. This is known as the albedo effect. Currently, the North Pole appears to be losing some of it’s albedo function. Even slight warming at the poles can alter this process–producing less snowfall, which translates into less ice mass…more heat absorbed by newly exposed water, more fragmenting and melting of ice caps, etc….pushing the poles into (possibly) a ‘positive feedback cycle’ of more and more heat absorption and ice melting.

The impact of this warming and potential positive feedback cycle on polar animal life and ocean fisheries, is the focus of other long-term census studies currently under way.

For further study, check out The Future of the Poles

Photo credit: Opening of the Northwest Passage: European Space Agency (ESA)

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